China's Accidental Empire Is a Growing DangerTIMES ONLINE:
As the world's newest superpower expands trade and flexes its military muscle, a perilous regional arms race loomsA Victorian historian said that Britain “conquered... half the world in a fit of absence of mind”.
Chinese Communist Party leaders are not normally associated with absentmindedness, but rather with cool, calculated, long-term strategic thinking. Yet China might well now be building a mixture of influence and obligation - the modern version of an empire- in quite a British way, and one that promises to cause increasing tension with its giant neighbour and regional rival, India.
Events in Sri Lanka, as that nation finally brings an end to a quarter-century-long civil war, are the latest example of China's growing overseas reach. The victory of the Sri Lankan Government was assisted by the supply of arms from China, especially fighter jets, as The Times revealed on May 2, while the Chinese are also building a spanking new port on the southern coast of the country, which the Chinese Navy will be able to use for refuelling and repairs.
This is part of a broad move by China into the Indian Ocean, which India has traditionally considered its sphere of influence. Chinese engineers are building another port at Gwadar in Pakistan; roads are being cut or improved through Burma to help trade routes between Yunnan province in China and the Indian Ocean; ties are being improved with island nations such as the Seychelles; surveillance stations are being sited or upgraded on Burmese islands.
During the 1990s, Chinese foreign policy followed a dictum laid down by Deng Xiaoping, the country's wise old leader, in line with an ancient Chinese saying that China should (to paraphrase) “keep its head down, build its strength and hide its claws”.
The old Maoist-era policy of trying to export revolution was dropped. Border disputes with most of China's Asian neighbours were resolved. Aid started to be handed out to poor countries such as Cambodia, Laos and Burma to buy friendship, promote trade and, others would argue, build dependency.
China's long-time policy of supporting Pakistan, as a means of keeping India preoccupied by the confrontation with its old enemy, was maintained, but in a more discreet way. Arms sales and other aid were also provided to Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal, but China was careful not to make the support too blatant and substantial, for fear of annoying India.
Just as in 19th-century Britain, however, commerce is now producing a new set of complications. Chinese industry's hunger for oil and other natural resources from the Arabian Gulf and from Africa has led to huge increases in trade across the Indian Ocean to China, as well as to big investments by Chinese state-owned companies in mines and oil wells in Africa.
>>> By Bill Emmott* | Friday, May 22, 2009
*
Bill Emmott is the author of Rivals - How the Power Struggle between China, India and Japan Will Shape Our Next Decade, published this month in paperback by Penguin
