Hearst says the Lebanon framework weakens Lebanese sovereignty, creates a military coordination group run from Washington, and obliges the Lebanese army to disarm Hezbollah, which many in Lebanon see as the only credible deterrent against Israeli attack.
He says that Lebanon has also granted immunity to Israeli troops and generals for war crimes committed during the invasion. He says that the contradiction reflects a tug of war inside the US administration. The Iran deal reflects the thinking of Vice President JD Vance, who opposed regime change in Tehran, while the Lebanon deal bears the imprint of Marco Rubio, who remains committed to that project.
Hearst argues that Israel’s failure to dictate terms to Iran has pushed it to regain power in Lebanon and Syria. But he says Israel is already turning its attention to Turkey, now presenting it as the “new Iran” and warning of a new Sunni axis involving Turkey, Syria and Qatar.
He concludes that Israel means what it says when Netanyahu vows to change the Middle East forever. The main battle line is now shifting to Lebanon and Syria, and hard power will be needed to stop Israel’s strategy of “kill them first”.
