«Bernanke pumpt eine weitere Blase auf»
TAGES ANZEIGER: Der Chef des Bostoner Vermögensverwalters GMO, Jeremy Grantham, hält Aktien für überbewertet und warnt vor grossen Risiken am Bondmarkt.

Wenige Investoren haben in den vergangenen Jahren so viel Klarsicht bewiesen wie Jeremy Grantham. Der Gründer des Bostoner Vermögensverwalters GMO warnte vor 2007 wiederholt vor einem Kollaps am US-Immobilienmarkt und vor einem Börsencrash. Im März 2009, auf dem Höhepunkt der Marktpanik, empfahl er in einem Kundenbrief mit dem Titel «Reinvesting When Terrified» den Kauf von Aktien. Heute ist er skeptisch. Die Aktienmärkte seien als Folge der enorm expansiven Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank bereits überbewertet, während der Bondmarkt für Investoren «tödlich» sei – ein Riesendilemma für Anleger, sagt Grantham. Er rät zum Aufbau von Cashreserven. » | Von Mark Dittli, Finanz und Wirtschaft | Donnerstag, 14. April 2011

China Alarmed by US Money Printing
THE TELEGRAPH: The US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to a top member of the Communist hierarchy.

Cheng Siwei, former vice-chairman of the Standing Committee and now head of China's green energy drive, said Beijing was dismayed by the Fed's recourse to "credit easing".

"We hope there will be a change in monetary policy as soon as they have positive growth again," he said at the Ambrosetti Workshop, a policy gathering on Lake Como.

"If they keep printing money to buy bonds it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two the dollar will fall hard. Most of our foreign reserves are in US bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen, and other currencies," he said.

China's reserves are more than – $2 trillion, the world's largest.

"Gold is definitely an alternative, but when we buy, the price goes up. We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets," he added.

The comments suggest that China has become the driving force in the gold market and can be counted on to buy whenever there is a price dip, putting a floor under any correction.

Mr Cheng said the Fed's loose monetary policy was stoking an unstable asset boom in China. "If we raise interest rates, we will be flooded with hot money. We have to wait for them. If they raise, we raise. >>> Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, in Cernobbio, Italy | Sunday, September 06, 2009

Obama’s Mistakes: Chancellor Merkel Visits the Debt President
SPIEGELONLINE INTERNATIONAL: The occupant of the White House may have changed recently. But the amount of ill-advised ideology coming from Washington has remained constant. Obama's list of economic errors is long -- and continues to grow.

The president may have changed, but the excesses of American politics have remained. Barack Obama and George W. Bush, it has become clear, are more similar than they might seem at first glance.

Ex-President Bush was nothing if not zealous in his worldwide campaign against terror, transgressing human rights and breaking international law along the way. Now, Obama is displaying the same zeal in his own war against the financial crisis -- and his weapon of choice is the money-printing machine. The rules the new American president is breaking are those which govern the economy. Nobody is being killed. But the strategy comes at a price -- and that price might be America's position as a global power.

In his fight against terrorism, Bush had the ideologue Dick Cheney at his side. "We must take the battle to the enemy," he said -- and sent out the bomber squadrons toward Iraq on the basis of mere suspicion. The result of the offensive is well known.

Obama's Cheney

Obama's Cheney is named Larry Summers. He is Obama's senior-most economic advisor, and like the former vice president, he is a man of conviction. The financial crisis may be large, but Summers' self-confidence is even larger. More importantly, President Barack Obama follows him like a dog does its master.

The crisis, Summers intoned last week at a conference of Deutsche Bank's Alfred Herrhausen Society in Washington, was caused by too much confidence, too much credit and too many debts. It was hard not to nod along in agreement.

But then Summers added that the way to bring about an end to the crisis was -- more confidence, more credit and more debt. And the nodding stopped. Experts and non-experts alike were perplexed. Even in an interview following the presentation, Summers was unable to supply an adequate explanation for how a crisis caused by frivolous lending was going to be solved through yet more frivolity. >>> Gabor Steingart | Thursday, June 25, 2009

Weimar 1923 May Have More Lessons than US 1932
THE TELEGRAPH: Are we heading for another Great Depression?

Many baffled forecasters are asking just that, and studying what the US did wrong after the stock market crashed in 1929. But the more relevant policy errors might have been those made earlier across the Atlantic - in Weimar Germany from 1919 to 1923.

Policymakers have learned from the US mistakes. This time around, there has been no shrinkage of the money supply and no repetition of President Hoover's increase in tariffs in 1930 and income taxes in 1932. On the contrary, money supply has expanded rapidly while fiscal policies have been expansionary and protectionism limited.

But look at the Weimar government. Suffering from the trauma of defeat in the First World War and the burden of reparations, it was too weak to raise taxes. It ran large budget deficits instead. Interest rates were kept far below the rate of inflation, while money supply expanded rapidly. About half of government expenditure was funded by newly printed money. >>> By Martin Hutchinson, breakingviews.com | Wednesday, April 1, 2009

The Bank of England's Printing Presses Are Ready to Roll
THE TELEGRAPH: The big question is whether the extra cash will actually be spent, says Edmund Conway.

As far as markets are concerned, this is World War Three. Share prices have fallen so far and fast in the United States that they are back where they were when Bill Clinton was finishing his first term and John Major was still clinging on to power. Despite a small pick-up yesterday, the sense of misery and resignation remains so pervasive that US markets are now priced for either world war or full-scale depression.

Stocks are better value than they have been for all 1,680 months since 1870 save for brief periods in 1920 (post-WWI adaptation), 1932 (Great Depression), 1942 (WWII) and 1982 (stagflation hangover), according to calculations on the US markets from Lombard Street Research.

Observing this recession is rather like watching slow-motion footage of a car crash. And at the front bumper of the vehicle are share prices and money growth. Shares started really sliding last autumn, just before the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers coincided with a sudden and unprecedented collapse in world trade. But the impact of the collision is still travelling through the frame of the car, shattering individuals' fortunes with inexorable inevitability as it passes on. Investors have abandoned the markets because of their fright about the slide in profits and the rise in redundancies that lie ahead in the coming months.

Yet for all the sound and fury, the full scale of the impact has yet to be felt. It will only be at the end of this year, when unemployment is closer to three million than two million, that we will truly know how it feels to be in the thick of a recession. Sir Fred Goodwin may consider himself a victim of unreasonable public recrimination now, but I dread to think how the revelation of his pension would have gone down six or eight months hence with 10 per cent out of work for the first time since the 1980s. >>> By Edmund Conway | Thursday, March 5, 2009

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Glenn Beck: Hyperinflation

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The Dangers of Printing Money
TIME Photo Gallery: The Fed's doing it. The Bank of England says it plans to do it, too. With printing money back in fashion, TIME reflects on Germany's efforts in the 1920s — and the crisis that followed >>> | Friday, February 27, 2009

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Gold Hits Record against Euro on Fear of Zimbabwean-style Response to Bank Crisis
THE TELEGRAPH: Gold has surged to an all-time high against the euro, sterling, and a string of Asian currencies on mounting concerns that global authorities are embarking on a "Zimbabwe-style" debasement of the international monetary system.

"This gold rally is driven by safe-haven fears and has a very different feel from the bull market we've had for the last eight years," said John Reade, chief metals strategist at UBS. "Investors are seeing articles in the press saying governments should deliberately stoke inflation, and they are reacting to it."

Gold jumped to multiple records on Tuesday, triggered by fears that East Europe's banking crisis could set off debt defaults and lead to contagion within the eurozone. It touched €762 an ounce against the euro, £675 against sterling, and 47,783 against India's rupee.

Jewellery demand – usually the mainstay of the industry – has almost entirely dried up and the price is now being driven by investors. They range from the billionaires stashing boxes of krugerrands under the floors of their Swiss chalets (as an emergency fund for total disorder) to the small savers buying the exchange traded funds (ETFs). SPDR Gold Trust has added 200 metric tonnes in the last six weeks. ETF Securities added 62,000 ounces last week alone.

In dollar terms, gold is at a seven-month high of $964. This is below last spring's peak of $1,030 but the circumstances today are radically different. The dollar itself has become a safe haven as the crisis goes from bad to worse – if only because it is the currency of a unified and powerful nation with institutions that have been tested over time. It is not yet clear how well the eurozone's 16-strong bloc of disparate states will respond to extreme stress. The euro dived two cents to $1.26 against the dollar, threatening to break below a 24-year upward trend line.

Crucially, gold has decoupled from oil and base metals, finding once again its ancient role as a store of wealth in dangerous times. >>> By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard | Wednesday, February 18, 2009

SKY NEWS: Bank To 'Print Money' To Tackle Recession

The Bank of England could begin 'printing money' next month in a bid to tackle the recession.

Minutes of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) showed members were in agreement that more radical measures were needed to ward off deflation.

The committee voted 8-1 in favour of the half point rate reduction of the interest rate to an historic low of 1%.

The Bank of England does not actually print money when it moves to increase the amount of cash in the economy.

Instead it engages in a process known as quantitative easing, whereby it creates money to buy up Government securities - gilts - and private sector assets. >>> | Wednesday, February 18, 2009

THE NEW YORK TIMES: Fed Offers Bleak Economic Outlook

The Federal Reserve cut its economic outlook for 2009 on Wednesday and warned that the United States economy would face an “unusually gradual and prolonged” period of recovery as the country struggles to climb out of a deep global downturn.

In gloomy economic projections released by the central bank, the Fed’s Open Market Committee said it expected that the economy would contract by 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent this year, that unemployment would rise to 8.5 to 8.8 percent and that inflation would remain under greater pressure.

Bleak economic data reflecting a sharpening slide in housing, trade, industrial production, spending and employment rates “more than offset” any potential impact from an economic stimulus plan, the Fed said, forcing it to cut its economic outlook. >>> By Jack Healy | Wednesday, February 18, 2009

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