GLOBE AND MAIL: South Ossetia may be very small, but it has become the scene of an event of colossal proportions: the return of Great Power politics, in which tanks are the deciding factor, not "soft power," let alone international legitimacy.
This huge change follows inevitably from Russia's regression to its own historic version of empire, which existed under the czars and was revived by Stalin. It is based on a tacit bargain: The Russians accept authoritarian rule and the loss of personal freedom in exchange for an imperial role on the global scene, starting with the "near abroad" - countries such as Georgia that used to belong to the Soviet Union.
For all its weaknesses, the Russian Federation has all it needs to function as a Great Power, from a determined ruling elite to a vast nuclear arsenal, adequate military forces now being modernized, and a revitalized intelligence service. Hence, the reversion of Russia to the dangerous rules of Great Power politics compels all others to change their behaviour as well - it is not a game, and participation is not voluntary.
Understandably, the Poles were the first to react. After bargaining with the Americans for months to extract more rewards for accepting a small anti-ballistic missile base on their territory, within hours of the Russian advance into Georgian territory, they dropped all their demands to sign on the dotted line. Other reactions may be much less obvious but could be much more important. Japan, for example, is likely to draw even closer to the United States, while China's rulers might be influenced in a most unfortunate way. After leaning this way and that, they had seemingly decided that maximum economic success was more valuable than a fast buildup of military strength; they may now revise their priorities.
The most direct impact, however, will be on Europe and the North Atlantic alliance. All through the Cold War, it was a truly operational organization, in which every member had to be ready to fight in defence of every other member. There were serious defence plans for vulnerable borders that were realistically exercised by hundreds of thousands of troops, and periodic airlifts to bring reinforcements to exposed frontiers as a reminder of what would happen in war. The Party’s Over for Europe: The Bear Is Back >>> By Edward Luttwak* | August 21, 2008
*Senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Dawning of a New Dark Age (Paperback – Canada) >>>
The Dawning of a New Dark Age (Hardback – Canada) >>>
