His plan: win big, claim a mandate, and make the inquiry look like political persecution. It hasn't gone to plan. The main parties refused to stand. He's running against Count Binface and 33 others. He'll win — but on a reduced majority and a humiliatingly low turnout. And in September, the inquiry resumes anyway.
If the Parliamentary Standards Committee suspends him for 10 or more days, a recall petition follows — requiring 10% of Clacton voters' signatures. That triggers yet another by-election. More humiliation. More decline.
This is a man who built a 25-year political career on being the plain-speaking outsider. Now he's the one dodging questions about £5 million he "forgot" to declare. The beginning of the end? I think so.