…by the mid-summer of 1914 more than a decade of belligerent erraticism by German leaders, who lacked the diplomatic skill and self-restraint of Chancellor Otto von Bismarck, contributed to the feeling among Germany’s neighbours that there were bounds which she should not be permitted to cross. Hence, a regional Balkan conflict involving Germany’s ally Austria-Hungary and a Serbia supported by her Russian patron rapidly escalated first into a continental and then a general world war. - Michael Burleigh, The Third Reich: A New History
Does this sound familiar? Change some names of countries, and it should. The conflict between Georgia and Russia, now a regional conflict, could easily escalate into a European, and then a world conflict. We’ve been here before. At no other time since the end of World War II has the world been so close to another world war. We should not kid ourselves that we are not living through dangerous times. With the Russian invasion of Georgia, the world became a far more dangerous place. Alas, there is war in the air!
Dmitry Medvedev, the president of Russia, has already stated, loud and clear, that he is not frightened by the thought of another cold war. I think we can assume, also, that he would not be frightened by the thought of a little more than that: World conflict, perhaps? Make no mistake about it: Russia is very rich in natural resources, especially oil and gas; and it wants to re-establish its pre-eminent place in the world of geopolitics. The downfall of the Soviet Union was a humiliation for Russia. It weakened the country, the proud people of Russia beyond anything we could have inagined. There is no doubt about the fact that Russia has felt marginalized ever since; and Medvedev and Putin are out to correct that. Their intention is clear to see: They want to make Russia a force to be reckoned with – again.
It is therefore very important that Western politicians find the right and appropriate response to their actions. A reaction that is too weak, and we lose; a reaction that is too strong, and the world could yet again become a very ugly place.
It is hard for us all to imagine a world war. Things have been very comfortable for Westerners ever since the 50s. Most people living today are far too young to know anything of the privations of a world conflict. It is quite unimaginable to most people. But this does not mean to say that another world war will not happen.
We have all heard it said, ‘never again shall we be dragged into a world war’. ‘Not in our lifetime.’ But that phrase is only meaningful if each side feels the same about a world conflict. It is so obviously not the case. The Russians are clearly not as timid as Westerners when it comes to military action. Their position in the world seems to be far more important to them than the pursuit of world peace.
It seems that not enough has been done since the fall of communism to bring Russia on side. America and Russia should be partners in world politics, not adversaries. Were these two great countries to be partners, we would not be where we are now.
Alas, the conflict in Georgia has happened at a time when the West is very weak. The US, after many years of conflict in the Middle East, can hardly afford another war. It’s on its uppers as things stand. Imagine what another costly war would do for the economy. Especially a world war.
Moreover, it’s election year; and there is more than a chance that the Americans will elect a president to the White House who has little experience of foreign affairs. Obama therefore hardly inspires confidence at a time when Russia is sabre-rattling. Would Obama really be strong enough to cope with a major conflict with Russia?
From what I can see of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, it has been pure, unadulterated schmalz. Touchy-feely to the limit! Check out the schmalz here and here. What the Russian leaders must be thinking when they see such naïve displays of devotion to an untested politician, one can only imagine!
These are tough times; and tough times call for strong leadership, especially from the United States – the leader of the free world. How would Obama react if the world went to war? What experience could he bring to the table?
One has to ask oneself one simple question: Does the American electorate have any idea of the dangers that lie ahead of us? Are all these people ready to elect Obama because he has charisma, because they may perceive him to be good-looking? Don’t they want more from their leader than that? Doesn’t the free world need more than that?
The problems we face from Islam, too, are formidable. And they haven’t gone away. Indeed, the problems we now face with Russia have compounded the problems we face with Islam, since Russia has strong connexions with both Syria and Iran, and those connexions are getting stronger.
There has been much talk for a very long time of the possibility of bombing Iran if it doesn’t abandon its nuclear programme, which they say is peaceful, but which the West insists is not. Bombing Iran and destroying its nuclear installations just got a whole lot more difficult for the Americans to do. Indeed, it could be said that that ship has already left the harbour, for Russia is almost bound to come to the aid of Iran if it is attacked, if only covertly through Syria,
And if Israel were to attack Iran? What would be the outcome? Your guess is as good as mine, but such an action would almost certainly be a huge danger to world peace, stability and security.
We can see the fault lines being drawn with each passing day. We really cannot afford to sleepwalk into a world conflict. Only today, Miliband has urged tough action against Russia in response to its aggression against Georgia. But where is the capability going to come from? Europe is weak militarily. There has been gross undespending on the Europeans’ militaries for decades now. If Europe is to talk tough with the Russians, then it has to have the military might to back up its tough talk. It clearly doesn’t have strong militaries. The UK doesn’t either; the armed forces in the UK have been underfunded for years. Indeed, it is high time that European governments started spending far more of its money on its militaries. And while they are at it, it might not be a bad thing if they were to re-introduce national conscription. (I can’t believe I wrote that!) It would do a whole lot of good to the rudderless youth we see about the streets. It would also do a great deal to teach our young people some self-respect and discipline. It would also help give them a purpose in life.
With Russia on the move, and determined to reassert its authority, European governments might have little choice but to re-introduce conscription. The soft times, it seems, might well be over. Ahead of us, we have some tough choices to make. Let’s hope that the Americans make a good start in the upcoming election; and show the rest of the West the way forward by making some tough choices, too.
©Mark Alexander
