LE MONDE : Inflation, guerre commerciale, réchauffement climatique… Dans un entretien au « Monde », l’économiste américain, réputé pour son pessimisme, dresse la liste des grandes menaces auxquelles nos pays seront confrontés ces prochaines années.
Il est l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. Parfois surnommé « Docteur Catastrophe » en raison de ses prévisions très sombres, Nouriel Roubini, professeur d’économie à la Stern School of Business de l’université de New York, a publié un nouvel ouvrage (Mégamenaces, Buchet-Chastel, 384 pages, 23,50 euros), où il recense les risques auxquels nos économies seront confrontées en 2023 et au-delà. A commencer par celui d’une crise financière.
Vous êtes l’un des rares à avoir vu venir la crise de 2008. La situation d’aujourd’hui est-elle comparable ?
Difficile à dire, car nous sommes confrontés à une série de risques aux horizons temporels différents. A court terme, il y a ceux liés à la guerre en Ukraine, bien sûr, à l’inflation et au spectre d’une crise financière qui pourrait advenir ces prochains mois ou dans les deux ou trois années à venir. S’ajoutent à cela des « mégamenaces » susceptibles de se matérialiser plus ou moins sévèrement sur le long terme, et qui ne relèvent pas seulement de l’économie. » | Propos recueillis par Marie Charrel | vendredi 13 janvier 2023
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Showing posts with label stagflation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stagflation. Show all posts
Friday, January 13, 2023
Thursday, May 05, 2022
Recession: The Price Britain Will Pay to Control Inflation
THE GUARDIAN: Analysis: As the Bank of England raises interest rates the message is clear – the 1970s are back
Unemployment rising. Inflation above 10%. Energy prices soaring. Living standards squeezed. The message from the Bank of England was crystal clear: the 1970s are back.
The word stagflation was not to be found in the 100-plus pages of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy report. Yet a period of weak growth and rapidly rising prices is precisely what the Bank says is in store for the UK. The current post-lockdown bounce will be short-lived and, in a real blast from the past, the economy will be driven into recession to bring inflation under control.
Nor is the pain likely to be over quickly. The economy is expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023 and remain weak in the next two years. Unless things take a marked turn for the better, the next general election will take place against a backdrop of weak growth and lengthening dole queues. » | Larry Elliot, Economics editor | Thursday, May 5, 2022
Bank of England raises interest rates as it warns of recession and 10% inflation: Rise to 1% is fourth successive increase and highest level since February 2009 »
Related.
Unemployment rising. Inflation above 10%. Energy prices soaring. Living standards squeezed. The message from the Bank of England was crystal clear: the 1970s are back.
The word stagflation was not to be found in the 100-plus pages of Threadneedle Street’s monetary policy report. Yet a period of weak growth and rapidly rising prices is precisely what the Bank says is in store for the UK. The current post-lockdown bounce will be short-lived and, in a real blast from the past, the economy will be driven into recession to bring inflation under control.
Nor is the pain likely to be over quickly. The economy is expected to contract by 0.25% in 2023 and remain weak in the next two years. Unless things take a marked turn for the better, the next general election will take place against a backdrop of weak growth and lengthening dole queues. » | Larry Elliot, Economics editor | Thursday, May 5, 2022
Bank of England raises interest rates as it warns of recession and 10% inflation: Rise to 1% is fourth successive increase and highest level since February 2009 »
Related.
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