Many Polls Say Orban Will Lose. But He Has an Edge Even Before Voting Begins.

THE NEW YORK TIMES: Over 16 years, Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s party has repeatedly tweaked the electoral system to its advantage, making the vote free, but not entirely fair.

Screenshot taken from this NYT article. | Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary addressing his supporters during an election rally on Friday. Credit...Petr David Josek/Associated Press
Most polls suggest a straightforward outcome for Hungary’s high-stakes election for a new Parliament on Sunday: Prime Minister Viktor Orban will lose.

But nothing about the vote is that simple.

For a start, the electoral system “is exactly what you would expect for a country that invented the Rubik’s Cube,” according to Ralph Schoellhammer, an Austrian scholar at a government-aligned college in Budapest, Hungary’s capital.

While most pollsters predict that the main opposition force, Tisza, will win more votes than Mr. Orban’s Fidesz party, the extreme complexity of Hungary’s system and years of gerrymandering mean that the results may not be quite what they seem.

Even if the polls are partly right, the governing party could still end up with a majority of seats in Parliament or enough to form a new government in coalition with smaller parties.

And many, particularly Fidesz supporters, believe the polls are wrong. So does Vice President JD Vance, who declared during a visit to Budapest on Tuesday that “Viktor Orban is, of course, going to win.”

Mr. Orban agreed, saying this was “the plan.” » | Andrew Higgins and Lili Rutai | Reporting from Budapest | Sunday, April 12, 2026