Thursday, May 06, 2010

Tories Scent Victory as Poll Lead Widens

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David Cameron at his final camapign rally in Bristol. Photograph: Times Online

TIMES ONLINE: David Cameron has the keys to No 10 almost within his grasp, with the final poll of the campaign for The Times indicating that the Conservatives will make sweeping gains from Labour.

But the Conservatives cannot yet be sure of winning an overall Commons majority unless they perform even better in key Labour marginals to compensate for the likelihood of a strong Liberal Democrat showing.

The Populus poll of 2,250 voters puts the Tories on 37 per cent, up one point on a week ago. Labour is up one point at 28 per cent and the Lib Dems down one point at 27 per cent.

This would represent a swing since the 2005 election of just over 6 per cent — the biggest to the Tories since 1945 and second only to Labour’s advance in 1997. The findings point to an additional 91 Tory MPs, 25 seats short of an overall majority.

A key obstacle to the Conservatives’ ambitions may be the success of the Liberal Democrats, who are on course, despite a small last-minute squeeze, to turn in the best performance for a third party since the 1920s. >>> Peter Riddell, Jill Sherman and Roland Watson | Thursday, May 06, 2010