Russia Preparing Possible ‘Provocation’ in Baltic States or Poland, Sources Say

THE GUARDIAN: Kremlin may attempt to test Nato cohesion as Russia comes under growing pressure from Ukraine, according to sources from two countries

This photo is from this Guardian article. | The aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on Moscow last week, when nearly nearly 200 drones hit several locations across the Russian capital. Photograph: EPA
Two countries on Nato’s eastern flank have warned that Russia is preparing a possible “provocation” in the Baltic states or Poland in an effort to test the cohesion of the western military alliance.

Western sources also fear there could be danger on the horizon because the Kremlin is coming under pressure from Ukraine’s campaign of long-range attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg.

On Monday, Latvian intelligence said: “We see indications that Russia is preparing military provocations against the Baltic countries or Poland.” However, it would be well short of a full scale attack.

A senior political source from a second Nato member made a similar statement last week. They said “we are picking up intelligence” that Vladimir Putin was “planning something against the Baltic states”.

They said Putin might be willing to test US support for some of Nato’s smallest member countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – in a desperate effort “to throw the dice” as Russia struggles with its invasion of Ukraine. » | Dan Sabbagh | Defence and security editor | Friday, June 26, 2026