"The War Is Turning Iran into a Major World Power": U. of Chicago Professor Robert Pape

Apr 9, 2026 | Will Iran join China, Russia and the United States as a fourth major power on the world stage? Iran's resilience in the face of the U.S.-Israeli war is already shifting the global balance of power, says American political scientist Robert Pape. "What you are seeing with Iran is that its geography, in combination with a level of drone technology that we simply cannot destroy," is demonstrating to other countries that they may not have to stay beholden to U.S. hegemony. "What makes us think we're really going to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power in the next six months or a year?" asks Pape. "Iran is far stronger than it was just 40 days ago. It is in control of 20% of the world's oil. It is now an emerging fourth center of power. … The United States is on one side, and the rivals are China, Russia and now Iran."