CARNEGIE POLITIKA: Putin thinks exploiting Trump’s desire to be seen as swift and decisive is the best way to get what he wants in Ukraine.
The release last week of Marc Fogel, a U.S. citizen detained in Russia on dubious drug charges, was obviously meant to put U.S. President Donald Trump in a good mood and serve as a respectable reason for him to talk to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin. After all, calling to thank someone for showing mercy to an unfortunate compatriot needs little explanation.
Putin seeks to exploit Trump’s desire to be seen as swift and decisive. Therefore, resuming communication to hand him his first success was a logical step, especially since it was so easy. All Putin had to do was arrest an American citizen, then release him.
Putin is ready to hand Trump the same kind of win with respect to Ukraine: he started the war and will stop it if certain conditions are met and the right words are spoken.
Throughout his quarter century in power, Putin has proposed that Russia and the United States work together to defeat a common enemy, from Islamic terrorists and Somali pirates to COVID-19 and even global warming. He believed that such a victory would bring the two countries closer, transcending political and ideological barriers, differences between changeable and unchangeable power, and even Russian domestic repression, as Stalin and Roosevelt managed to do in the 1940s.
Paradoxically, Putin has come closer to his goal at a time when it would seem he should be further from it than ever, having become the West’s common enemy. Trump’s account of his phone call with Putin casts a war seemingly independent of the Russian president, and not the man himself, as the common enemy worth defeating.
This is not the first time Putin has used force and made himself necessary to deal with the consequences. However, never before has this tactic been used so blatantly or been so readily accepted. » | Alexander Baunov | Monday, February 17, 2025
