The idea of an independent Wales is no longer just a hobby-horse of bearded men in Carmarthenshire pubs on Six Nations rugby match days. Polls put support for independence at about 30%, (and skew more pro- the younger you go): not enough to signal anything imminent, but high enough for us to be certain something real is happening. After all, Scotland was polling similar numbers in 2007, and just seven years later David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg were making “the vow” to the people of Scotland as they scrambled to keep the union together.
Of course when we look at this 30% figure, there is a question of saliency. People may support independence, but how crucial is the issue for them? Most people support House of Lords reform, for instance, but it doesn’t result in a massive majority for the Lib Dems. Having spent the last 18 months immersed in the idea of an independent Wales, I can attest that this is a real movement, with legitimate grievances which should be taken seriously. This isn’t to say that independence is inevitable but just that, like the leave campaign or those for an independent Scotland, these issues are fringe, minority movements – until they’re not.
Perhaps the biggest surprise when I started researching this area is how, especially for people who have come to the idea of Welsh independence since Brexit, identity is only a secondary motivating factor. For them it is, first and foremost, a matter of the head not the heart. Most supporters have simply looked at the state of the United Kingdom, seen that it isn’t working for Wales, and view independence as the most effective vehicle for fixing Wales’s problems. That doesn’t mean independence necessarily is the answer, just that the status quo is leaving the country both impoverished and unable to fix the problems it has. » | Will Hayward | Tuesday, August 30, 2022
