A Friend Asked Me What I Thought Putin Would Do Next. This Was My Response

It is difficult to say, but it would appear to me that he has the rest of the Ukraine in his sights. Then, probably Moldova. And then, who knows? To my mind, the man is so obviously an empire-builder. He loathes Russia's loss of clout in the world; and resents America's pre-eminent position as a superpower. He seems determined to do something about it.

In Obama, he sees weakness, which he certainly doesn't respect. He knows that Obama has no appetite for a fight. He also knows that Americans are war-weary. Further, he knows that America is in tremendous debt; so another war is the last thing America needs. Europe, he will probably perceive as weak, too; in complete disarray, and in the middle of lean economic times. Europe's main weakness is that there is no elected central command. Germany, Europe's potentially strongest nation, has hang-ups because of WWII and Hitler's ignominious legacy: das Vaterland has no appetite for a fight. It, along with the rest of Europe, is dependent on Russia for gas supplies.

The UK is not so dependent on Russia's gas supplies, but it is in the process of winding down its military in the name of austerity, falsely believing that world wars and major conflicts are a thing of the past. Consequently, the path is wide open for whatever Putin chooses to do next, knowing, of course, that apart from a few symbolic sanctions, little or nothing will be done about his military manoeuvres.

The Baltic states – Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania – will probably be left alone, for the time being at least, because there are treaties obliging the rest of NATO to come to their aid if attacked. He will therefore concentrate on those countries which are not bound by treaty.

I read yesterday that Putin phoned Obama in order to seek a 'diplomatic solution'. This, if I am not greatly mistaken, is a cynical ploy. He is playing Obama for the fool he truly is. He is flattering him on the one side, knowing that he is exceedingly vain, and laughing about him behind his back on the other. Putin has no desire for a diplomatic solution, since were he to have that desire, he wouldn't have annexed Crimea in the first place.

This is a power game – a big power game at that. Putin is out to secure Obama's legacy as a complete idiot, and ineffectual world leader. He is playing to his vanity. Pay attention to what will happen next. Putin is in this for the long-haul. Victory for him will come at the end. This is just the beginning of a war of nerves, I believe. Remember this: Putin was schooled in the KGB. He was not a community organiser! Putin is Machiavellian; Obama, like a pussy. America needs a change at the top. And soon!

© Mark Alexander

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