BBC: If Egyptian unrest turns into an Egyptian revolution, the implications for the Arab world - and for Western policy in the Middle East - will be immense.
Egypt matters, in a way that tiny Tunisia - key catalyst that it has been in the current wave of protest - does not.
It matters because its destiny affects, in a range of ways, not only Arab interests but Israeli, Iranian and Western interests, too.
Egypt, the most populous Arab state, can help determine the thrust of Arab policies - whether towards Israel or Iran or in the perennial quest for Arab consensus on issues that matter.
Above all, the Egyptian state has traditionally had a strength and solidity that made its collapse seem unthinkable.
Even now, with so much that is uncertain, that state and its basic structures may survive - with or without Hosni Mubarak, the country's president for the last three decades.
Islamist wild card
If there is a power vacuum, who is likely to fill it?
Will the powerful military intervene to restore stability?
If they did, would the protesters accept such a scenario - or would they, like their Tunisian counterparts, keep up the pressure for radical change?
And - the wild card that troubles Western policy-makers most - could the Muslim Brotherhood, the country's Islamist opposition movement, somehow exploit the protests to come to power?
Right now, that scenario seems far-fetched. The Brotherhood is trying to jump on the bandwagon of a youthful and largely leaderless protest movement.
They are not in front. They are trying to catch up.
But the situation is volatile. New leaders - nationalist or Islamist, civilian or military - could emerge if the country is engulfed in chaos. Regional consequences >>> Roger Hardy, Middle East analyst, Woodrow Wilson Center | Friday, January 28, 2011
