Monday, June 29, 2009

Life in Iran Will Be Worse Than Before the Election

TIMES ONLINE: That's that then. The massive street demonstrations have been crushed. Iran's security and intelligence services have locked up thousands of opponents. Opposition newspapers, websites and bloggers are being systematically shut down. The regime's Orwellian mouthpieces have shamelessly declared the election to be an epic milestone in the 30-year history of the Islamic Republic, and the US and European Union want to resume talks about Iran's nuclear ambitions.

For the millions of Iranians who campaigned with such exuberance before the election, and who are convinced that Mir Hossein Mousavi was robbed of the presidency by blatant electoral fraud, the only way left to vent their anger is to go up to their roofs at night and shout 'Allahu Akbar' (God is great) in one collective wail of despair. Even that is becoming dangerous, with reports that basiji - Islamic volunteer militiamen - are storming the homes of those who dare to sing God's praises.

Those millions do not face a return to the status quo ante, however. Henceforth their lives will be far worse than they were before the June 12 ballot. An extreme, fundamentalist faction has staged a coup against a relatively moderate and pragmatic revolutionary old guard. It controls the security forces, judiciary, media and machinery of government. The social repression of President Ahmadinejad's first term will look mild compared to what is coming, for that is the only way this severely weakened regime can now maintain power.

The authority of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, has been destroyed. Once regarded as the infallible lynchpin of the entire system, he is now seen as just another ruthless political conspirator. He rules through military, not moral, might. His edicts have been defied. Iranians chant "Death to Khamenei" - unthinkable a month ago. >>> Martin Fletcher: analysis | Monday, June 29, 2009