Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Iran Protesters May Have Last Laugh on Ageing Regime

THE NATIONAL (UAE): Some years ago, Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former Iranian president, revealed something that speaks volumes about the bare-knuckled quality of politics currently on display in Tehran.



In late 1978, with protests mounting against his abusive reign, Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi went on television and expressed contrition. “He admitted to past transgressions and past sins and said ‘I’ve heard the voice of your revolution’,” Karim Sadjadpour, an expert on the Middle East republic, told a conference held recently at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He believed that was going to appease the crowds and silence the unrest.

On the contrary. In hard-boiled Iran, the Shah's mea culpa was a fatal show of vulnerability. "That's when we smell blood", said Mr Rafsanjani. "That's when we pounce."


Mr Rafsanjani’s aside explains the uncompromising stance staked out by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Iranian supreme leader, as his regime faces the most serious threat to its legitimacy since the Shah’s removal. “What Khamenei has long believed is that you never compromise when you’re under siege,” Mr Sadjadpour said at the Carnegie briefing. “That projects weakness, which invites even more pressure.”

The Iranian regime is indeed weak, and has been long before it struggled to win the latest election with president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad apparently receiving more votes cast. If anything, the events of the past 10 days have revealed the Iranian government to be the hollow shell that it is, and not a rising power as it was so ludicrously portrayed by George W Bush, the former US president, and his neoconservative cadres. >>> Stephen Glain | Sunday, June 28, 2009