BBC: The Iranian leadership is falling into the same trap that their arch-enemy the Shah of Iran fell into in the 1970s.
They are not listening to the people.
After a meeting with Shah Reza Pahlavi, the US ambassador William Sullivan complained: "The king will not listen."
Soon afterwards, the king had to leave the country, and Ayatollah Khomeini returned from exile in triumph.
Khomeini's successor as Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claimed at Friday prayers at Tehran university that "foreign agents" were behind efforts to stage a velvet revolution.
Change
Having spent 10 days in Iran for the 12 June election, that accusation sounds to me like a classic case of blaming the messenger.
There is a velvet rebellion taking place. It is not a revolution yet - but it could evolve into one if the Supreme Leader and his associates do not listen to the people.
I heard with my own ears dozens of peaceful, young Iranians saying they wanted change.
Sixty percent of the population are under 30 years old. They have no memory of the Islamic revolution in 1979. Many of them use the internet and watch satellite TV. Their window on the wider world is irreversibly open.
Many of them simply want peaceful change - and in particular an end to the strict laws that govern personal behaviour in Iran.
They want to be able to sing and dance. They wonder why the Iranian leadership continue to ban such expressions of human joy - a ban very similar to the rules imposed on Afghanistan during the Taliban regime.
And of course Iranians do sing and dance. I have been to several parties where the dancing was intense. And so was the drinking, though alcohol is also illegal.
Prohibition does not work. Many Iranians simply lead double lives.
An article in a magazine - available at Tehran news stands when I was there last year - carried the headline: "We are all hypocrites now."
Many women only cover their heads because they would be arrested if they did not.
Several women I met openly complained about the religious "guidance" police enforcing the female dress code of the chador, or the hijab and "manto" coat.
One young student told me: "I like the hijab. My friend doesn't like it. I should be free to choose to wear it, and she should be free to choose not to."
Another woman said: "The hijab is not really the problem. The real problem is that men and women are human beings - they are the same, and they should have equal freedoms." >>> By Hugh Sykes, BBC News | Sunday, June 21, 2009
