In the following excerpt from Alireza Jafarzadeh’s book on Iran entitled, The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis
, we are given the following insights into Ahmadinejad’s fragile Iran:”The Iranian regime’s ability to create chaos in Iraq, fund and train terrorists throughout the Middle East, and defiantly proceed with its nuclear enrichment program can easily be interpreted as signs of the Iranian regime’s strength. That is exactly what the leaders in Tehran want the world to think. But in reality, these actions, including Ahmadinejad’s bravado and grandstanding, provide a smoke-screen for a regime that is struggling to survive.Mark Alexander
In spite of Iran’s oil wealth, the economy is in shambles; the most conservative estimates rank inflation in the double digits, and one out of every four Iranians living below the poverty line. One of Iran’s own economic organizations estimated 52 percent unemployment among the 15-29 age group for 2006. Others believe the numbers are much higher. Strikes are rampant in state-run businesses, from bus companies to soda factories, where workers go for months without pay or benefits. The ruling mullahs monopolize huge segments of the economy through ownership of massive, unregulated 'philanthropic' organizations (bonyads) that form a bloated and corrupt system. The younger generation, which comprises the vast majority of the population, is fed up with all the restrictions imposed upon them and the increasing crackdown on the press and personal liberties. Civic unrest forces the government to expend enormous resources to put down the thousands of demonstrations that erupt every year before the situation gets out of hand. Iran’s leaders realize that the domestic situation is a time bomb that could explode any day, and they attempt to hide that weakness and vulnerability behind “success” abroad. The regime’s defiance of the IAEA and the West regarding the nuclear program is just one attempt to try to build up Tehran’s image, while repressing the population that seeks to drive them out of power.
Understanding the realities of Iran’s domestic situation, any state that attempts to negotiate with Tehran while perceiving Iran as a strong, rich, and stable nation is operating under a fallacy. Tehran has never been more vulnerable. The leaders’ greatest fear is that the organized opposition will continue to gain more visibility and international support. Far from leading a young, loyal nation toward prosperity and stability, Tehran is facing down an inevitable showdown with its own people.”
Buy this extraordinarily detailed book here: The Iran Threat: President Ahmadinejad and the Coming Nuclear Crisis
7 comments:
Mark, Armageddonjihad and his cronies were voted in by a majority, just like Hamas. This author, and all the others of his ilk, can go on and on about how the people despise their leaders, but they voted for them.
Asia Times essayist, Spengler,concludes in Demographics and Iran's Imperial Design that Muslim birthrates are collapsing at a rapid rate, and the Islamists [have] "only one generaion in which to strike out for their global supremacy." Thus, Iran requires a "re-engineering program" with which Ahmadinejad proposes to relocate millions of Iranians so that "the state can play a central role in all aspects of people's lives..."
"Reengineering the shape of Iran's population, the central plank of the new government's domestic program, should be understood as the flip side of Iran's nuclear coin. Aggressive relocation of Iranians and an aggressive foreign policy both constitute a response to the coming crisis, " and Ahmed doesn't plan to allow Persia to go quietly into the night.
Embittered as desperate, he plans to take us all to the next stage ... the end of the history, the end of the world, and onto what follows, the ultimate sullen brat who prefers to ruin it all before allowing any to have what he no longer can: "If I can't have it, you won't either!"
John, I understand your scepticism, but weren't those elections rigged? I believe they were.
RR:
It is not a fight that Britain or USA should be drawn into and may provide a strategic advantage for us. Our sole concern should be to protect the Eastern coastal lands of the Mediterranean.
I am inclined to agree.
Embittered as desperate, he plans to take us all to the next stage ... the end of the history, the end of the world, and onto what follows, the ultimate sullen brat who prefers to ruin it all before allowing any to have what he no longer can: "If I can't have it, you won't either!"
Yes, Eleanor, one could say, in simple terms, that he's the ultimate killjoy!
I've read many reports over the years from Ledeen to Kristof that paint a picture of young Iranians eager to embrace Western values but I have to wonder if it is only superficial. The West is symbolically the anti-Mullah but do they really understand the core values underlying our civilization? As they are subject to a harsh grim 7th century theocratic life do they see the West in terms of our virtues or do they see the superficial hedonism and a decadence often decried by the Ayatollahs?
I have grave doubts that they know what the West is about. We Yanks fought for our liberty to be free to live proper and prosperous lives; human dignity, self-reliance, and a sturdy independent spirit gave us the strength to endure the struggle. What do anti-regime Iranians seek? What tradition propels them?
If it is little more then the desire to indulge, a few more creature comforts, and better women's fashion, I doubt that they have what it takes to sustain the fight. However, economic pressure still might topple the regime. I'm sure the Mullahs will try to rally the people by a foreign war but I doubt they'll succeed. What's the worse that could happen if we apply economic pressure (perhaps with the aid of a few air strikes)? Perhaps a non-Islamic military take-over? If the new regime agrees to stop their nuke program we'll achieve the main goal.
Jason:
Thanks for your very thoughtful comment. Your comments are always welcome, as I think you know.
I've read many reports over the years from Ledeen to Kristof that paint a picture of young Iranians eager to embrace Western values but I have to wonder if it is only superficial. The West is symbolically the anti-Mullah but do they really understand the core values underlying our civilization? As they are subject to a harsh grim 7th century theocratic life do they see the West in terms of our virtues or do they see the superficial hedonism and a decadence often decried by the Ayatollahs?
Like you, I fear that many Iranians see the West in terms of "superficial hedonism". It is this hedonism which attracts many, but repulses the more devout followers of the 'cult of Muhammadanism'.
The upper classes in Iran, of course, will know exactly what the West is all about, since so many of them will have travelled extensively, or even studied abroad. But the people in the street will be the ones who would be difficult to convince of the virtues of Western life and democracy.
We Yanks fought for our liberty to be free to live proper and prosperous lives; human dignity, self-reliance, and a sturdy independent spirit gave us the strength to endure the struggle. What do anti-regime Iranians seek? What tradition propels them?
It is difficult to conceive of human dignity when they see their fellow man, for reasons of infidelity in marriage, homosexuality, and all manner of 'evil' ways of life, being killed for their 'misdemeanours' and 'criminality'.
If it is little more then the desire to indulge, a few more creature comforts, and better women's fashion, I doubt that they have what it takes to sustain the fight.
How right you are!
However, economic pressure still might topple the regime. I'm sure the Mullahs will try to rally the people by a foreign war but I doubt they'll succeed.
And we need to apply that economic pressure sooner rather than later.
What's the worse that could happen if we apply economic pressure (perhaps with the aid of a few air strikes)? Perhaps a non-Islamic military take-over? If the new regime agrees to stop their nuke program we'll achieve the main goal.
I couldn't agree with you more. The West has everything to gain, and little to lose. The scenario of Iran having 'the bomb' doesn't bear thinking about; indeed, it is a nightmare scenario.
Post a Comment