Electoral history is full of upsets, but few are as stunning as the Liberal Democrats’ byelection victory in Chesham and Amersham, deep in the heart of Tory Britain. In June there was a 25% swing against the ruling party and a study by the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank this week calculated that more than 30 Tory MPs would be vulnerable if such a revolt were repeated. With their party conference starting on Friday, the Liberal Democrats are determined to make that win just the first step in bringing down the Conservatives’ “blue wall”.
While there are causes for optimism, one ought to be realistic. The Lib Dems have 12 MPs. Sir Ed Davey is the party’s fourth leader in six years. He will not be telling delegates this weekend to go back to their constituencies and “prepare for government”. But there are good reasons to believe something is happening. The local election results in May signalled Lib Dem gains at the expense of the Conservatives.
Boris Johnson’s authoritarian and populist Tory party, designed to appeal to a new coalition of voters, has alienated large parts of its traditional base. When our correspondent canvassed with Lib Dems in the leafy Surrey marginal seat of the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, not a single voter professed loyalty to the Tory MP. Voters can punish those who take them for granted. » | Editorial | Friday, September 17, 2021
