THE NEW YORK TIMES: The collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad not only upends decades of Assad family rule in Syria, it also promises to realign power across the Middle East.
The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, especially around questions of whether the rebels can consolidate control and how they will govern if they do. But as a new reality in Syria sets in, a reordering of regional power dynamics is already taking shape that dramatically diminishes Iran’s influence and positions Turkey to play a critical role in shaping the future of a post-Assad Syria.
During Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war, no fewer than six foreign militaries engaged in the conflict, underscoring the major geostrategic stakes at play. Among them, Iran stands out for its unfettered investment in propping up Mr. al-Assad, reportedly spending billions of dollars to support the regime and mobilizing tens of thousands of proxy militia fighters. For Tehran, Syria was the leading edge of its forward defense strategy, protecting its interests in the region by projecting its power and influence. The fall of Mr. al-Assad dramatically undercuts this influence, depriving Tehran of a key Arab ally and cutting the land bridge to its Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah. Uprooted from its decades-long strategic posture in Syria, Iran is unlikely to recover from this significant setback for the foreseeable future. » | Mona Yacoubian | Ms. Yacoubian is vice president for the Middle East and North Africa at the U.S. Institute of Peace. | Wednesday, December 11, 2024
