Last week, a treasury minister, Rachel Reeves the Chancellor of the Exchequer, and the Governor of the Bank of England, all referred to the negative effects of Brexit.
The OBR calculated that Brexit will have cost the UK economy 15% of trade intensity [* see below] and 4% of GDP and yet the government continues to talk of growth as being the answer to the UK's economic problems. But where is this growth going to come from?
Donald Trump is to be the new POTUS and it is hoped that he will favour the UK with tariff exemptions or a trade deal**. This seems unlikely. My prediction is that Trump is unlikely to last a full term. He is impulsive, dishonest and will be almost totally unrestrained during his second term. I also expect that he will soon fall out with Elon Musk who, no doubt, feels that he 'bought' the presidency for Trump
* Trade intensity means the ratio between the total value of exports to third countries plus the value of imports from third countries and the total market size for the Union (annual domestic turnover of Union companies plus total imports from third countries) as per Eurostat statistics, Source: Law Insider.
** I disagree with Michael Lambert in this matter. Tariff exemptions, yes; I am all in favour of any tariff exemptions we can get. However, any trade deals with the USA will mean the UK relinquishing its sovereignty. Any deals with Trump will be to America’s advantage. This will not be a level playing field. Do we REALLY want the USA to buy up our hospitals? Do we really want the USA to privatise our NHS? Do we REALLY want chlorinated chicken on our supper plates, or hormone-injected beef? Do we REALLY want a plethora of GMO products on our dinner plates?
Further, any trade deals with the USA will put the UK in a seriously disadvantaged position; they will also push us further apart from the European Union, where we belong. The further the UK and the EU drift apart, the more difficult it will be to rejoin. Moreover, the longer we have been outside the European Union, the clearer it should be becoming to all, even the most Eurosceptics amongst us, that Brexit was a ridiculous experiment in self-harm right from the start. No-one with an iota of understanding of economics and international trade would ever have been in favour of wrenching this country apart from such a successful political and economic union. Cameron, BoJo, and Farage have a great deal to answer for. They have impoverished this nation, they have stunted its economic growth, they have made the European continent more vulnerable to invasion, and they have endangered the peace of our continent. Not forgetting, of course, that the European community was conceived to bring peace after the horrendous wars and suffering in the twentieth century.
The re-election of Trump has made the UK's re-entry into the European Union more urgent than it has been for a long time. It is to the UK's advantage, and the EU's, that Brexit be seen as a huge mistake, damaging both sides. For this reason, we British need to reconsider our membership of this political and economic bloc, and our European brethren and sistren need to find it in them to forgive and move on. Let us deny Putin the pleasure of a weakened Europe. Let us begin working together again. In earnest. — © Mark Alexander
