The French election is straying from the script. It was meant to be a predictable remake. It has turned into a thriller. It could end up as a horror story.
A month ago, Emmanuel Macron seemed certain to be the first French president to win a second term in 20 years. After Russia invaded Ukraine, his poll ratings soared. He built a 12-point lead in a probable second-round match-up with the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, and a 15-point lead over all other candidates in the first round.
But with that first round taking place on Sunday, Macron’s lead has all but evaporated. In the most recent polls, he only has a two- to five-point advantage over Le Pen in round one, and a two- to eight-point lead over her in the two-candidate runoff on 24 April.
Most French political analysts believe Macron will still prevail. Le Pen has magically evaded, so far, any reckoning for her long years as a Vladimir Putin sympathiser. In the second round of French elections, the presidential credentials of candidates are put to a greater stress test than in the multicandidate first round. » | John Lichfield | Friday, April 8, 2022
