THE INDEPENDENT: The world watches and waits to see how the 30-year reign of Egypt's corrupt, incompetent President will end – whether the man who has reduced his country to a political slum will fight or take flight. Patrick Cockburn studies the lessons of his pastWill he or won't he go? And if he goes in what circumstances will he do so? Never has there been such acute interest in Egypt and the rest of the world about what goes on inside the head of President Hosni Mubarak.
Almost everybody is agreed from street protesters in central Cairo to US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in Washington that Mubarak is going to lose power in the short or medium term. His 30-year regime has long been notorious for its corruption, incompetence, authoritarianism and brutality, and it now appears to be losing the monopoly of force which alone guaranteed its survival. The riot police fled the streets at the weekend and the tank commanders who replaced them are pictured fraternising with demonstrators.
But the uncontested transition to a democratically elected government, largely preserving the political status quo, which the US and Britain would like to see, will not happen easily. First of all, Mubarak shows no signs yet of departing, though he is unlikely to advertise his travel plans.
His appointment of a new government led by Omar Suleiman, the chief of intelligence, might open the door for Mubarak to step down, but it might also mean that he believes he is not finished yet.
For all Mubarak's three decades as president of Egypt it is difficult to read his mind or his likely reactions, particularly as he faces an unprecedented crisis. Egyptians have long mocked his bovine appearance and utterances. "La vache qui rit" was the contemptuous phrase used to describe him. But he would not have held power for so long if he did not know how to manipulate political forces inside and outside Egypt. Read on and comment >>> | Tuesday, February 01, 2011
