THE SUNDAY TIMES: The reluctant vote in favour of further European integration by the Irish this weekend may usher Tony Blair into a new role as titular head of the European Union — despite most of Europe being reluctant to have him.
The former prime minister is the leading candidate to become the European Union president for a want of alternatives rather than any enthusiasm.
With the Irish having finally ratified the Lisbon treaty, all that remains is for the Czech and Polish presidents to sign it and authorise the creation of two new key posts in the EU hierarchy: the president of the European council of heads of state, popularly known as the EU president, and that of high representative for common foreign and security policy, in effect a foreign minister.
The Swedish prime minister, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU, indicated last week that he wanted the president and foreign minister to be appointed by the end of this month.
Blair owes his 6-4 odds for the job to the fact that the offices will probably be divvied up between the social democrat and conservative blocs among the EU heads of state. Although Blair appears to be disliked by all parties, especially by his supposed allies on the left, he may end up being elected because of the lack of another suitable candidate from the social democrat group.
Only two other possible social democratic candidates have emerged — Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, a former Danish prime minister, and Felipe Gonzalez, a former prime minister of Spain — and neither has the international clout of Blair. The same is true of the potential conservative candidates Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, and Jan Peter Balkenende, his Dutch equivalent.
The president will be elected by all 27 EU leaders, but the attitude of France and Germany is crucial. French diplomats last week indicated that Blair remained the preferred choice of President Nicolas Sarkozy, putting the ball into the court of Angela Merkel, the newly re-elected German chancellor. Blair is disliked intensely by Berlin for his role in the Iraq war and his perceived failure to contribute to Britain’s European integration.
“The only thing he cared about during his premiership was the City and that mentality has led to the current global crisis,” said Michael Gahler, an MEP from Merkel’s Christian Democrat party. “He is good at making speeches but he does not deliver.”
However, the Germans consider the post of the president to be far less significant than that of the foreign minister, who will also be vice-president of the commission and, in effect, be able to shape a common foreign and security policy and have leverage over commissioners addressing other areas.
Although her party’s favourite is said to be Juncker, Merkel, like Sarkozy, will be concerned with keeping at least a relatively pro-EU British politician in the spotlight. >>> Bojan Pancevski in Brussels | Sunday, October 04, 2009
