Sunday, January 30, 2011

Egypt Turmoil: What Does It Mean for the Middle East?

THE SUNDAY TELEGRAPH: As the unrest continues in Egypt, leaders across the Middle East are nervously watching their backs.

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an unmovable object? No one can predict for sure but anyone who knows Egypt can't be surprised at what is happening, only why it took them so long.

For decades it has been received wisdom in the Arab world that its regimes are too powerful to be confronted by unarmed people. "You are just fighting a mountain," they say in Arabic. "Don't knock your head against it."

So when Tunisia provided a real, live example of how, when the security forces kill demonstrators the revolution can still intensify, with protesters using new media technology to organise and outwit security forces, it did not just come as a big surprise to Arabs (and provide practical tips about how to bring about change).

It also overturned years of accepted dogma about the relationship between the rulers and the ruled, bringing the Berlin Wall inside people's minds crashing down. Suddenly the Middle East's authoritarian states only look rock solid until the day they turn into jelly and revolution seems possible everywhere.

Tunisia was a powerful ignition switch because events there were spontaneous and unexpected. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan and Libya all seemed more likely candidates to go first.

Now the tumult has engulfed Egypt, the most populous Arab state and the cornerstone of much Middle Eastern politics - and the domino effect is in full swing. Jordan, Algeria, Syria, Yemen and Morocco are all candidates to suffer the same fate. Read on and comment >>> Hugh Miles | Saturday, January 29, 2011